Global drought trends and future projections.

Drought is one of the most difficult natural hazards to quantify and is divided into categories (meteorological, agricultural, ecological and hydrological), which makes assessing recent changes and future scenarios extremely difficult. This opinion piece includes a review of the recent scientific literature on the topic and analyses trends in meteorological droughts by using long-term precipitation records and different drought metrics to evaluate the role of global warming processes in trends of agricultural, hydrological and ecological drought severity over the last four decades, during which a sharp increase in atmospheric evaporative demand (AED) has been recorded. Meteorological droughts do not show any substantial changes at the global scale in at least the last 120 years, but an increase in the severity of agricultural and ecological droughts seems to emerge as a consequence of the increase in the severity of AED. Lastly, this study evaluates drought projections from earth system models and focuses on the most important aspects that need to be considered when evaluating drought processes in a changing climate, such as the use of different metrics and the uncertainty of modelling approaches. This article is part of the Royal Society Science+ meeting issue 'Drought risk in the Anthropocene'.

Influence of weather types on the hydrosedimentary response in three small catchments on the Island of Mallorca, Spain.

The influence of the sea and topography are vital factors in the atmospheric processes affecting any island, as they introduce peculiarities in the hydrosedimentary response of fluvial systems. In view of that, the relationship between the surface atmospheric conditions (weather types, WTs), rainfall, runoff and erosion dynamics in three small catchments located in Mallorca were analysed. The catchments are representative in terms of geomorphology and land use but also due to their location within the major rainfall areas previously identified in the island by (Sumner et al., 1993). Data of rainfall, runoff and sediment variables, coupled with calculated WTs were used for the 2013-2017 period. WTs frequency and distribution during this period were compared to the last climatic period reference (1981-2010) to test the climate validity of the study period. The results illustrated how hydrosedimentary response was mostly caused by eco-geographical patterns but also by differences in the response of each catchment to WTs, related to the intrinsic geographical position in the island and different exposures to humid winds. Anticyclonic WT was the most frequent, despite it being only involved in one flood event at the eastern catchment. Conversely, eastern and northeastern WTs generated more than 85% of the total runoff and sediment, representing only 39% of flood events. The understanding of the specific role of WTs on the island's hydrology was improved, considering that freshwater resources are scarce and eco-sociologically crucial.

Long-term thinning effects on tree growth, drought response and water use efficiency at two Aleppo pine plantations in Spain.

In Mediterranean areas where drought-induced forest dieback and tree mortality have been widely reported, it is still under debate how the likely risks of climate change will affect tree growth and consequently forest productivity. Increasing tree mortality has been associated not only to increased drought, but also to a lack of management in many dense pine forests and plantations, where warming may intensify tree-to-tree competition for soil water. This emphasizes the need of using silviculture to adapt dense stands of Mediterranean pine reforestations to warmer and drier conditions. Here we combined dendrochronology and C and O isotope analyses of wood in two Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis) plantations, growing under semiarid conditions and experimentally thinned at high and moderate intensities along with control. The main aim was to understand the responses of radial growth and water use efficiency (WUEi) to different thinning intensities, and to analyze the effectiveness of thinning to enhance post-drought growth resilience. Thinning had a positive effect on growth, produced an increase of δ18O, reduced growth sensitivity to drought and decreased WUEi, suggesting a reduction of drought stress. These results were consistent across sites, and were significant even 20 years after the intervention took place. Considering the climate effects on growth through the SPEI drought index to calculate resistance and recovery indices, an increase of resistance after thinning was observed. We conclude that high thinning intensity (50% of basal area removed) is a useful silviculture intervention on Mediterranean Aleppo pine plantations that enhances their growth, and makes them less dependent on harsh climatic conditions, improving their resilience against drought and consequently making them better adapted to more unfavourable conditions.

Computation of rainfall erosivity from daily precipitation amounts.

Rainfall erosivity is an important parameter in many erosion models, and the EI30 defined by the Universal Soil Loss Equation is one of the best known erosivity indices. One issue with this and other erosivity indices is that they require continuous breakpoint, or high frequency time interval, precipitation data. These data are rare, in comparison to more common medium-frequency data, such as daily precipitation data commonly recorded by many national and regional weather services. Devising methods for computing estimates of rainfall erosivity from daily precipitation data that are comparable to those obtained by using high-frequency data is, therefore, highly desired. Here we present a method for producing such estimates, based on optimal regression tools such as the Gamma Generalised Linear Model and universal kriging. Unlike other methods, this approach produces unbiased and very close to observed EI30, especially when these are aggregated at the annual level. We illustrate the method with a case study comprising more than 1500 high-frequency precipitation records across Spain. Although the original records have a short span (the mean length is around 10 years), computation of spatially-distributed upscaling parameters offers the possibility to compute high-resolution climatologies of the EI30 index based on currently available, long-span, daily precipitation databases.

Forest resilience to drought varies across biomes.

Forecasted increase drought frequency and severity may drive worldwide declines in forest productivity. Species-level responses to a drier world are likely to be influenced by their functional traits. Here, we analyse forest resilience to drought using an extensive network of tree-ring width data and satellite imagery. We compiled proxies of forest growth and productivity (TRWi, absolutely dated ring-width indices; NDVI, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) for 11 tree species and 502 forests in Spain corresponding to Mediterranean, temperate, and continental biomes. Four different components of forest resilience to drought were calculated based on TRWi and NDVI data before, during, and after four major droughts (1986, 1994-1995, 1999, and 2005), and pointed out that TRWi data were more sensitive metrics of forest resilience to drought than NDVI data. Resilience was related to both drought severity and forest composition. Evergreen gymnosperms dominating semi-arid Mediterranean forests showed the lowest resistance to drought, but higher recovery than deciduous angiosperms dominating humid temperate forests. Moreover, semi-arid gymnosperm forests presented a negative temporal trend in the resistance to drought, but this pattern was absent in continental and temperate forests. Although gymnosperms in dry Mediterranean forests showed a faster recovery after drought, their recovery potential could be constrained if droughts become more frequent. Conversely, angiosperms and gymnosperms inhabiting temperate and continental sites might have problems to recover after more intense droughts since they resist drought but are less able to recover afterwards.